April 2021

Political Betting

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In today’s day and age, you can bet on just about anything and everything. Of course, the more traditional types of betting involve betting on sports. However, some of the leading sportsbooks in the UK now offer more obscure markets, with political betting being one of the most niche. This kind of betting is surprisingly popular, leading many to wonder how to bet on politics in the first place. This is precisely what is covered on this page, and as always, our team has hand-picked the best sites for political betting and listed them right here.

If you are curious about how to bet on politics, and you fancy giving the markets a try, why not choose a site and get yourself signed up?

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Can I bet on politics?

To give you the direct answer, yes. If you visit just about any of the top sportsbooks these days, there will be a section for political betting in the UK, the US, and many others. You can also find these markets at a lot of betting exchanges, such as Betfair or Smarkets. As obscure as political betting might be, the odds actually work just like regular sports betting.

The odds that you see, regardless of the market type, indicate the probability of that particular political outcome happening. There are a whole range of political betting markets that you can explore these days, such as ‘next UK prime minister’, ‘next US president’, and many more.

If all of this is brand new to you, we would encourage you to take a look at some of the top political betting sites we’ve listed on the page.

How to bet on politics

If you feel like having a go with the political betting markets, there are a few things that you need to put into place. We’ve put together a quick step-by-step in this section to show you how you can get started in your political betting journey.

  1. Pick an appropriate site

    First and foremost, you need to select a respectable betting site to start betting on politics. Not every site in the UK covers political betting, however, which is why it can be a fairly long and arduous process to find an appropriate site. To save yourself both time and effort, we’d advise that you stick to the political betting sites we’ve listed on this page.

  2. Fund your account

    After you’ve set yourself up at a political betting site, you will need to deposit some funds. There are many methods you can use to do this these days, such as debit cards, bank transfers, and e-wallets. Usually, you must deposit at least £5 or £10 for your deposit to be accepted, which isn’t too much.

  3. Check out the markets

    If political betting is brand new to you, we would encourage you to take some time and check out what the various political betting markets are. You can explore markets from all around the world at the best sites, and it is then up to you to find a market that you believe offers value before backing it.

  4. Place your wagers

    With an appealing market picked out, and money to use, it is then time to make your first political wagers. As stressed, there is a whole range of markets you can back in politics, but as always, you should only bet an amount that you are comfortable with.

What political events can you bet on?

While you can find political betting odds for a wide range of markets, we would like to take a moment and show you some of the more common markets for political betting UK. After all, it’s all the more exciting when you bet on markets that are a little bit closer to home, so do read on to find out more.

Overall majority

Rather than backing markets where there is just an individual involved, in the overall majority markets, you are backing which party will receive the most vote. The overall majority markets in the UK are red hot right now, but with that said, ‘no overall majority’ and ‘conservative majority’ are the markets that seem to be favoured by the bookmakers.

Labour seats over / under

With the way that parliament is structured in the UK, various political parties can win a certain number of seats in an election. As you may already be aware, these seats do not mean that the party will come into power, but you can still bet on how many seats a party will win. This is market is available for the Labour party right now, and you can choose whether they will win more or less than a set number of seats.

Conservative seats over / under

Adding on from the over / under markets that are available for the Labour party, this is a market that is also open for the Conservatives. Of course, the decisions you make will likely be influenced by the current state of affairs as well as the polls.

Liberal Democrat seats over / under

You can also place wagers on the number of seats that the Liberal Democrats will win in the election. Just like the other political markets discussed here, there are various increments listed for this market, with the more extreme outcomes carrying higher odds.

Can you bet on US politics?

You can absolutely bet on US politics, and now is a perfect time to explore these markets. The US has been fairly turbulent in politics following Trump’s election victory in 2016, but from a betting perspective, this disruption has paved the way for the emergence of some awesome markets. You can bet on quite similar markets for US politics as you can for UK politics, with markets like the general election winner, various state winners, and of course, the winning political party.

Obviously, the scale of US politics is significantly larger than UK politics, but you can still find a range of enticing markets nonetheless.

What are the odds on the next general election?

The next general election is not due to take place in the UK until 2024, but the top betting sites already have odds listed for this event. Naturally, with the event occurring so far into the future, the odds that are currently available could fluctuate wildly before the election actually takes place. This can provide quite an opportunity, however, especially if you are courageous enough to go for an outsider.

At the time of writing, the odds at some of the leading bookmakers are as follows:

  • No overall majority – 13/10
  • Conservative majority – 2/1
  • Labour majority – 9/4
  • Liberal Democrat majority – 66/1

As you can see, it’s a rather close contest between the no overall majority and the Conservative majority markets, so this is evidently how the bookmakers see the election going right now.

Things could change drastically between now and the general election, so it’s up to you whether you want to get your bets in early or hang tight.

What are the odds on the next US president?

The US general election is always a major political event, and it receives coverage from countries all around the world. This coverage also extends to the UK bookmakers, as plenty of the top sites have odds available right now for this event. Before his eventual victory, Joe Biden was the overwhelming favourite to win, with his odds floating around 4/9. But it’s not always the case that the odds predict the future, so make sure you’ve done your research before you place your wager.

How does a hung parliament affect political betting?

A hung parliament is basically where no single political party has received enough votes to assert absolute power. Currently, in the UK, it is the Conservative party that has the overall majority in parliament, which is headed up by Boris Johnson who is the leader of the Conservative party and current Prime Minister of the UK. If the UK was to have another election and end up in a ‘hung parliament’, you would likely see that the over / under ‘number of seats’ market become rather lively.

This is because the only way out of a hung parliament is for one single political party to regain the majority vote. In addition to this, you would likely see some rather large odds on any single political party to regain power or win the next general election. Naturally, this all depends on the political landscape at any moment in time.

Can you bet on Scottish politics?

You can find all sorts of political betting odds that are directly related to Scottish politics. The Scottish government is a devolved member of the UK government, and as such, they have their own individual elections. For example, right now the markets are looking incredibly lively for who will be the next Scottish First Minister.

There are other markets that can be explored for Scottish politics too. Another example would be the political betting markets for Scotland voting for independence from the UK, which is another market that seems to attract a lot of attention.

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How often do the bookmakers get it right?

As is the case with any kind of betting, the bookmakers do not always get it right. After all, it is impossible for the odds to reflect the eventual outcome with absolute precision, despite how advanced the algorithms have now become. With that said, it would be fair to say that the odds generally do reflect the actual chances of an event happening, even if it doesn’t eventually work out this way. This is just how probability works, as there is always going to be some degree of error.

Political betting tips

While there are many betting strategies employed by people that bet on politics regularly, there is no guarantee that any single strategy will result in profit. It’s important to know that before relying too much on betting strategies in the first place, but with that said, we do have a few tips that could improve your chances of success.

Follow opinion polls

Opinion polls are a great way to gain an understanding and a general feel for how the public is feeling. Since it is the general public that ultimately votes on political outcomes, this can prove to be a really important factor.

Bet in advance

Political betting odds can often be posed quite far out from the event, sometimes even years in advance. This is something that you can take advantage of as you could back a huge early underdog who’s odds shorten dramatically as the election, for example, nears, meaning that you’ll be in line for significant windfall should they win.

Choose more predictable markets

While nothing is certain in politics, some markets are easier to predict than others. For example, picking an exact individual to emerge into a particular position such as Prime Minister or First Minister can be quite tricky. However, if you back a political party, this can be easier to understand and predict.

If all of this had made you feel like getting involved in political betting, don’t forget to sign up with one of our recommended sites today.

Ready to place a wager?

Political betting is a great alternative to the usual sports markets and you can always gauge the quality of a betting site by the availability of any political markets. And now that you’ve got the lowdown on what it’s all about and how to make the most informed bet, the only thing left to do is choose your political betting site, sign up and claim your welcome bonus!

FAQs

  • Are there strategies for betting on politics?

    Yes. Some punters like to try and get stuck in with the markets early, and try to pick a perceived underdog that actually has a decent shot at winning. In contrast, some players prefer to wait for the last minute to make any kind of political bets, in the hope that the odds will start to become a better indicator nearer the time of an election. Naturally, your own strategy will depend on how closely you follow politics, as well as your own ambitions with political betting.

  • Should you study the polls when betting on politics?

    Absolutely. The polls help to guide the betting markets in the first place, and if you pay attention to them, this will help to give you an idea as to what the possible outcomes will be. As we all know, the polls don’t guarantee that this is how things will go, but they are certainly something that should be checked out when betting on politics.

  • Should you follow the news when betting on politics?

    Yes, but it is important to remain somewhat objective if you follow the news when it comes to political betting. That’s why it’s important to follow a variety of different news sources so that you end up betting with your head rather than your heart.