To US Political Betting Sites

Why Bet on Politics?

If betting on politics feels like an alien concept, you should know that the last two US presidential elections have attracted more bets on the Betfair Exchange than any other single event. Political betting is now so widespread that its forecasts are considered by some to be more accurate than official polls. Indeed, many politicians and commentators now turn to betting markets to inform their predictions on the race to the White House.

So what is it that makes politics so appealing for punters? If you think about it, political betting is not so different to sports betting – there are favourites and underdogs, figures you like and dislike, plenty of markets to bet on, and passionate fans who’d do anything for their side to win. But what sets political betting apart is its opportunity to buy a small stake in a momentous cultural event. As the red or blue tide sweeps across the US, you become more and more invested watching the results unfold with a bet in play, a small part of a big piece of history. Sure, a presidential election is not as frequent as the local derby, but it carries much more significance as a result. It’s this feeling that makes political betting so enjoyable, and why it’s a popular betting option for so many.     

The US Political System

The US political system is divided into three parts: the President and their cabinet, the courts, and Congress. Each of these parts is responsible for one area of government; Congress, for example, is the political entity tasked with proposing and passing the laws that govern America, much like the British parliament. 

Congress is formed of two chambers––the Senate and the House of Representatives––both of which are comprised of democratically-elected officials. In the Senate, each state appoints two Senators in a state-wide vote, making up a total of 100 Senators. 

In the House of Representatives, members are voted in in accordance to their district, which are allocated to each state based on population size. California has the largest state population, so it has the highest delegation of Representatives with 53; Vermont, by way of contrast, has just one. There are a total of 435 Representatives, who can be thought of as being similar to British MPs, and their districts similar to MPs’ constituencies.

Members of Congress are elected every two years on Election Day – the Tuesday after the first Monday in November of every even year. Representatives serve two-year terms, so there is always a betting opportunity on Election Day to wager on newly-elected Representatives. Senators serve six-year terms, but their appointment to Congress is staggered, meaning that only a third of the total Senate seats are up for re-election on Election Day. 

Presidential elections take place every four years, with candidates able to serve a total of two four-year terms. To become a presidential nominee, candidates must first garner support from their fellow party members, with the final candidate confirmed at the party’s national conference. Independent candidates, who are not officially affiliated with any party, are also able to run for president, such as Bernie Sanders in 2020. 

Since 1850, every presidential candidate has belonged to either the Democrat or Republican parties. The politics of the Democrat party places an emphasis on social equality and equal opportunity, supporting bills in favour of minority rights, such as its championing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. 

The Republican party bases its politics on economic conservatism, typically in the form of lower taxes, free market capitalism, and the deregulation of corporations. Its social policies take their foundation in the Constitution and traditional Christian views.

Available Markets

Interest in US political betting intensifies in the build-up to a presidential election. Here are some of the most common markets you’re likely to find at political sportsbooks.

Republican/Democrat Primary Nomination

As soon as candidates start declaring their ambition to run for president, political betting sites will begin offering odds on who will win the party’s nomination. This process, known as the primaries, pits Republicans and Democrats against their own party members in a bid to become the next presidential candidate. In this market, you select your Republican or Democrat nominees that you think will win the nomination. 

Presidential Election

Once the primary nominations have been dealt with, the presidential election becomes a two-horse race. Here, you pick the winner.

Popular Vote

Because victory is determined by the number of seats won rather than the number of votes gained across the country, winning the most votes in a presidential election does not guarantee that a candidate becomes president. Hilary Clinton, for example, won the popular vote at the 2016 election against Donald Trump by 3 million votes, but it was Trump who took office. In this market, you pick the candidate to win the most individual votes from the American people.

Specific State

To become president, a candidate must win a certain number of electoral college votes – a system similar to the UK’s parliamentary seats. There are 538 electoral colleges in total, which are delegated to each state according to the number of members that state has in Congress. 

Generally speaking, states will award all of their electoral college votes to the poll’s most popular candidate. For example, if a candidate wins 50.1% of the popular vote in Texas, they are awarded all of the state’s 38 electoral votes. To win the election, candidates must amass 270 electoral college votes––i.e. more than 50% of the total––meaning that the most populous states become key battlegrounds in the race for the presidency. In this market, you can wager on which states vote Democrat, and which vote Republican.  

House/Senate Candidates

Each Election Day sees new elections for members of Congress. Because of the way senators are staggered into Congress, only a third are up for re-election on Election Day. Representatives, on the other hand, only serve two-year terms, so all of them are up for re-election on Election Day. You can pick which candidates you think will be elected as members of Congress in this market. 

Notable Others

The best political betting sites also offer a few other notable markets to wager in. PaddyPower, for example, hired a Head of Trump Betting to keep up with the demand for more playful markets for punters to enjoy. In the build-up to the 2020 election, the ‘Trump Market’ received a lot of interest, with bets such as:

• Trump to put himself on Mount Rushmore
• Trump’s first words at certain speeches
• Trump to mention ‘Sleepy Joe’ in a tweet this week
• Trump to be kicked off Twitter before 2021
• Trump to be impeached before election result

While some of these markets exist primarily to poke fun at politics, many of them offer opportunities to place savvy bets and win some money. 

Non-Presidential Markets

While the core of US political betting is undoubtedly the excitement, tension, and unpredictability of the presidential election, odds are offered between elections that are worth considering. 

With House of Representatives elections every two years, Senatorial elections every six years, bets offered on legislative decisions in Congress and the aforementioned special markets that cover an extraordinary range of politically-flavoured betting options, it’s well worth the savvy punter’s time to keep an eye on a sportsbook’s US politics markets.

Bonuses

Political betting sites will offer new and existing members a variety of bonuses. Let’s take a look at some of the most common.

Matched Deposits

For matched deposit bonuses, the bookie matches the first deposit you make into your betting account up to a set amount. For example, if you’re offered 100% up to £100, any deposit you make up to £100 will be matched in its entirety by the bookmaker. If this sounds like free money, remember that wagering requirements will apply. Be sure to read the terms and conditions to make sure you understand the restrictions in place, and how much you’ll need to wager before you can withdraw winnings accrued with your bonus.

Free Bets

Bookmakers might offer customers free bets, usually dependent on a set minimum bet amount. This will look something like an offer of £25 in free bets when you deposit £5 into your account. As with any bonus, be sure to check the terms and conditions.

No Deposit Bonus

A no deposit bonus will reward you without the need to deposit any money into your account, but there will be certain stipulations on how you’re able to use these. For example, you may be restricted to certain markets or bet types. Wagering requirements will also apply to no deposit bonuses, meaning you’ll need to wager the value of your bonus a certain number of times over before being able to withdraw any winnings earned through the bonus. The bonus terms and conditions will set out the finer points, so be sure to read them carefully.

Bet x, Get y

You might come across a bonus offer following the bet x, get y formula. For these bonuses, you’ll be offered something like ‘bet £10, get £30 in free bets’. Remember to always read those all-important Ts and Cs, as the bonus will have strings attached.

Banking Options

There’s plenty of flexibility in how to pay for your bet at the top betting sites. Let’s take a look at some of the most popular.

Debit Cards

You’ll be able to use your debit card at every gambling site listed on TopRatedBetting. While they’re a reliable deposit and withdrawal method, you can generally expect a 3-5 day wait for your withdrawals to reach your account. This is on top of the betting site’s internal processing time, which varies between operators.

E-Wallets

E-wallets are always increasing in popularity, and for good reason. With easy money management, additional security layers, minimal exposure of sensitive information, active fraud protection measures, and some of the fastest withdrawal speeds available, it’s easy to recommend an e-wallet for your gambling site banking. PayPal and Skrill are two of the most popular, but bear in mind that not all betting sites accept these payment types. You should also bear in mind that some welcome bonuses exclude e-wallets from eligibility, so be sure to read the terms and conditions before 

Pay-by-Phone

Boku, a pay-by-phone service, allows users to charge payments to their phone number, which are then integrated into the user’s monthly phone bill. Boku users enjoy the convenience of this method, which involves no card details, but unfortunately you can’t make withdrawals using this payment method and will have to provide an alternative.

Prepaid Cards

Paysafecard, a prepaid card service, offers another option for punters. Simply purchase a Paysafecard at one of its hundreds of vendors worldwide, available in a variety of denominations, and then use it on your favourite gambling site as you would a regular debit card. As with pay-by-phone methods, you can’t make withdrawals using a prepaid card.

Recent Results and Odds

Trump shocked the political world in 2016 when he first won the Republican primary vote, and again when he went on to become president, making a mockery of forecasts that had made him a considerable outsider against Hillary Clinton. After announcing his candidacy, Trump’s odds on becoming the next president were 150/1, and these eventually fell to 10/11 on the morning of the election.  

The 2020 election saw Trump seeking a second term against Democrat Joe Biden, and a tumultuous year marked by the president’s responses to both the coronavirus pandemic and Black Lives Matter protests led the bookies to largely favour a Biden win.

On election night, Biden’s odds were as low as 2/5, with Trump placed at 15/8. But just a couple of hours later, after early success in the key state of Florida, Trump’s odds were slashed to 1/5, making him the favourite for the first time since the pandemic. 

Early counting appeared to favour a Trump win, although this sentiment shifted dramatically as swathes of postal votes for the Democrats were counted in the days following the polls’s closure. With Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania flipping from Republican to Democrat, Joe Biden won the election.

Political betting markets proved remarkably accurate in the 2020 election, calling the correct outcome in 49 of the 50 states. They also had Biden down to win 310 electoral college votes, just four more than the 306 he eventually won. This contrasted heavily with the 356 predicted in some political forecasts.